Social Distancing and ‘stay home, stay safe’ became the mantras when the nationwide lockdown was announced on 24th March in an attempt to arrest the spread on Corona Virus. Due to this most of the employees were allowed to stay at home and do your job from your home. But there are a few sections of working people who depend on the daily wages like labourers working in factories, in the construction sector and so on. In this section, most of the peoples are from another state. These labourers are called a migrant worker. These were the migrant workers who provide support services to every supported themselves without jobs. And though government by declaring as it national disaster had made it obligatory for the employers to pay the wages as per the National Disaster Management Act, it is difficult to assess its implication. This is because, firstly, the administrative machinery to ensure compliance across the nation is far from adequate. Secondly, the income earned by the self-employed workers cannot be termed as wages, which mean that these workers would have to go without earning in piece-rated jobs, whose remuneration would differ depending on pieces made. And finally, the MSMEs or tiny enterprises are financially too fragile to release the wages without production. Perhaps only the domestic workers, whose contracts involve a significant personal component making them relatively indispensable, might have received their wages during the lockdown. By the end of the lockdown 1.0, the virus had made its appearance in urban areas where it was feared to flare faster due to the sheer density population, the use of common toilets, etc. 

A Challenge and an Opportunity

Harris-Todaro model of migration (1970) shows how rural/agricultural workers decide to migrate to urban/industrial spaces when the expected wage rate in the urban-industrial sector is significantly higher than their present wages in the rural sector. The expected wage is a ratio of the present urban wage rate and the ‘chance’ of finding a job. The latter being a ratio of the number of jobs available and the total number of aspirants, which includes those living in the urban sector and the new migrants. Naturally, if the ‘chance’ of finding a job is poor, the expected wage is low and the decision to migrate is put off. What plays an important role in changing this calculation is the presence of kin or a community in the urban sector. Availability of such support induces migration, which is a rational personal choice, by providing at least an initial base to a new migrant. And while every migrant may dream of a secure job in the formal sector, as more migrants flow in, they are compelled to settle in the unorganised or in the formal sector.

Economic Growth: Slowdown and Lock Down

Indian Economy has been going through a rough patch for a while. The GDP growth rate of the economy rate had slipped to 5% in the first quarter of FY20. The annual report of the RBI for the fiscal year 2018-19 shows a significant decline in every macro-economic indicator.

The US-China trade war could be an important exogenous factor affecting the economy. As we move beyond lockdown 4.0 there is a talk that ‘herd immunity’ might work better than social distancing. This is because virologists are warning us of a return of the virus within a year. So extending lockdown might not deliver much.